Noah Fant, TE, SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
ADP: TE23, Round 15
I will not fall for the Noah Fant late-round fantasy trap! I WILL NOT fall for the Noah Fant late-round TE fantasy football trap! Maybe let’s take a peek.
Noah Fant is so hot right now as the late-round TE in 2024 among fantasy analysts (and every year since 2019, it seems). As the perpetual late-round TE darling, many people forget that Fant was a first-round pick for the Denver Broncos in 2019, and even then, the buzz surrounding his athleticism and role was strong. Noah Fant had a RAS score of 9.88 with ELITE speed, exploding, and agility. His 40 times was 4.50, a speed that should create a bigger mismatch than Little Mac vs. King Hippo. However, even with these traits, Noah Fant was still just the TE 38 in 2023 and TE 23 in 2022. Much of the reason for Noah Fant’s unimpressive production is that last year was his 46.9% route participation. Even with his elite athletic profile, Noah Fant couldn't keep plodders like Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson from running routes and earning targets.
The biggest question is whether Noah Fant can outperform his current ADP of TE 23. Last year, Noah Fant had an ADOT of 7.5. This would have placed Fant at about the T13 in average target depth for TEs. This shows that Fant earned some quality targets rather than just dinking and dunking. Another intriguing stat is yards after the catch per reception (YAC/Rec). Fant had a YAC/REC of 5.59, 10th among TEs in 2023. These stats paint a narrative of a receiver who gets good quality targets and has big play potential in creating more yards after the catch.
Geno Smith threw 95 passes to 3 TEs last year, who together held a target share of 14.6%, which would have made all the Seahawks the TE 18 on the year. With Dissly and Parkinson moving on, Fant should have a death grip on the routes.
There has been speculation that Fant's role will grow and be utilized for his passing-catching abilities, which is supported by the off-season moves of signing Pharoah Brown and drafting AJ Barner.
Noah Fant has two games with teams that lead the league in TE points per game, which overlap with bye weeks for TE 1s. In week 7, the Seahawks play the Falcons (6th) and the Rams (2nd) in week 9. This makes Fant the ideal candidate to back up Jake Ferguson and George Kittle.
Noah Fant's contingency value is VERY intriguing. It is no foregone conclusion that Geno Smith will end the season as the starting QB for the Seahawks. Sam Howell is younger and has shown glimpses of big play abilities for the Commanders last year. Howell tossed 129 targets and four touchdowns to Washington TEs in 2024. With Sam Howell at the helm, Fant would see a significant increase in targets, leading to opportunities for points. This is promising, even considering that Fant is, at best, the 4th receiving option on a healthy team.
Like all late-round TEs, Fant has some warts. Fant had a target per route run of 0.14. His ability to earn targets last year was lower than Mike Gesicki, Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson. Noah Fant has been a fantasy football darling for the previous four years. Fant has yet to deliver on his draft capital and elite athleticism. You don't often find a TE breakout at year 6. However, due to his projected increase in routes, lack of competition, and a new contract, Noah Fant should easily outperform his current ADP of TE23. If Howell ends up starting, his contingency value alone makes Fant a screaming buy in the 15th round. Howell could send Fant closer to the end of the TE1 range.
Noah Fant, at his current ADP, is a no-brainer pick around players like Cade Otton, Tyler Conklin, and Isaiah Likely. He should have enough floor games at TE to complement an elite TE and the contingency value to break into a late TE 1/high-end TE 2 range with enough spike games to make him a meaningful contributor to your best ball team near the end of drafts.
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